Thursday, April 7, 2011

FOREX-Yen downtrend pauses,euro rally pause file

* Yen off lows but downtrend firmly in place

* Euro rally takes a breather after expected ECB rate hike

* Aussie also pauses after scaling fresh peak vs USD

The broad selloff in the yen stalled early in Asia on Friday as shaded pold motor investors took profit on short positions following a major aftershock in northeast Japan, while comments from the European Central Bank head saw the euro retreat from 14-month highs.

Following a widely expected 25 basis-point interest rate hike to 1.25 percent, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank had not decided that Thursday's rate rise was the first in a series of moves.

"The EUR experienced a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact" reaction to the ECB rate hike ... which proved to be one of the most universally expected events of the year," said Michael Woolfolk, analyst at BNY Mellon.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the ECB to stand pat for a couple of months before raising rates again in July.

"With Trichet failing to provide any guidance on further rate hikes and the phrase "strong vigilance" removed from the policy statement, players took profit on long EUR positions."

The euro last traded just under $1.4300, having slipped to a low of $1.4240, down from a 14-month peak around $1.4350 set on Wednesday.

Its downside, however, was limited by a calm bond market reaction to Portugal's plea autoclave for financial help from the European Union. Fears of contagion to Spain also eased after Madrid comfortably sold 4.1 billion euros of a new three-year bond.

Indeed, traders said there is demand for short-term upside strikes in the $1.4400 region as market players looked to protect against a further rise in the euro.

On the charts, a break of the key $1.4280 level is positive for the euro and BNP Paribas analysts expect the euro to next aim for $1.4375.

Still, some analysts expect a deeper pullback given exercise bike the common currency had risen 3.8 percent since early March when Trichet first hinted at an April rate hike, far earlier than markets had then been expecting.

Meanwhile, the yen's decline stalled as investors booked some profits after a 7.4 magnitude quake hit northeast Japan late on Thursday.

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